The Wonders and Horrors of Making Assumptions

Welcome to your weekly 1 on 1, where I tackle some of your most challenging questions concerning Engineering, Global Leadership, Life in Japan and more.

Today I'd like to offer a reflection on "Assumptions" and why you should be weary of them in your career.

It was one of my lazier, simple TikToks that got me in trouble. Now this isn't the first time I've ever "triggered" the internet... but most of the time that is a willful choice when I characterize "The Pretentious Engineer".

One day, I found a video of what looked like a giant 3D printing architecture used to manipulate a concrete pouring nozzle. This marvelous invention was pouring concrete... well actually it was more like smearing frosting on a cake one layer at a time, to build walls. The video claimed that this was the future of home construction and the comments were equally enthusiastic.

It was at that moment that I made a dangerous assumption. I didn't really see the future potential of this concept from a cost and maintenance perspective. I made a zero effort, zero research TikTok sharing some snarky doubt about the concept. You know... throwing rocks at what I thought were glass houses. It didn't take long for the construction community to light me up in the comments. Tons of professional framers and concrete finishers dueted my content highlighting my severe lack of intelligence. My video went viral in a "suboptimal" way gaining 1.1 million views and heaping on the shame. Now on most days, I actually try to make half-decent content that provides some value. That just wasn't my day.

We've all been burned by misplaced assumptions, and I'd like to share a few of my own.

For those of you who don't know I work on robotic surgery technology for Johnson and Johnson. I've spent the last decade advancing medTech innovation as a design engineer, robotics controls engineer, and systems engineer. Within medical device, we have stringent design/testing processes that ensure that commercialized solutions advance healing, not harm. That said there is always a risk that something unforeseen can occur. One of my favorite roles involved owning the risks and requirement cascade for a family for robotic surgical tools. There is a common risk management tool called an "FMEA" which stands for Failure Mode Effects Analysis. We can then put various letters in front of FMEA to denote what kind of failures we're interested in such as d - design, u - user, s - system, sw - software, etc.

As a systems engineer, I owned interactions between the dFMEA, uFMEA, sFMEA, and swFMEA. The process was pretty simple. Say we had some robotic tool that was able to seal a blood vessel through some generalized "undisclosed" means. We may know that one factor that leads to successful sealing is the amount of closure force provided to the vessel. That said there are many factors that can positively and negatively impact the closure force nominal value and its respective variation.

Here's a couple generalized factors: * Amounts of force/torque provided by a robotic interface to the device (if in force control).

* The rotational positional accuracy provided by the robotic interface to the device (if in position control).

* Mechanical advantage present in the device.

* Friction losses present within the device and across the robotic interface

* Motor Controler Stability

* Variability of the tissue pushing back on the system

* User's ability to command the robot to full closure vs partially closed

And the list could go on and on from system to subsystem to component, etc.

From an FMEA perspective, in the event that the closure force fails, the effect would be that the vessel seal may fail to be hemostatic and start bleeding. This would be a high severity to the patient, but luckily there is still the "A" in FMEA - called Analysis.

Note: You may have just seen me use the word "luckily"... there is no luck in engineering. I just felt clarification was important.

Anyways, based on the probability of the failure occurring and the severity, we could calculate the risk of this failure mode. For higher levels of risk, we could have more stringent requirements on various subsystems as well as design verification testing to prove safety for the patient. This all sounds great, but engineers don't operate in an "ideal" world with frictionless planes and linear equations. Anywhere that one mechanism "interfaces" with another system there is room for chaos (Murphy) to ruin the day.

My job as a systems engineer was to work across Design, Clinical, Marketing, Industrial Design & Human Factors, Quality, Systems, and other engineering groups to define and challenge the assumptions associated with every FMEA line. Literally 100's of lines. In many ways, I functioned more as a Wizard, as I attempted to predict the future based on limited data. 

The reality is, that an FMEA is a living document as are its respective requirements. Every line is based on assumptions, data, and engineering rationale (Magic). When things fail in various engineering builds, production, or even in the field... all the engineers circle around the failure and challenge the assumptions. 

It's really a beautiful process that is sacrificially and diligently completed for the sake of the patients we serve. It's hard, uncertain, and at times a soft science. It's a process I delight in even as it gives me a mental hernia. 

But here's the left turn you weren't ready for... what assumptions are you making with your future career/development?

You can spend years following one career assumption... just to get burned by it in the end. 

For example:

I spent five years of my career developing a _______ for a robotic surgical system. I took _______ from front-end "pre-concept selection" all the way to "design verification ready". My assumption was that I was going to stay with ______ until it launched and then move into a role that better suited me. Well, ______ was delayed, canceled, resuscitated, and finally killed (for now) over the last three years. 

This career assumption almost cost me my rotation in Systems Engineering as well as my long-term assignment in Japan. 

This assumption was also incredibly dangerous because it put hope in something completely out of my control... and hope (like luck) is not a plan. 

This might sound crazy and a tad nerdy, but you should consider doing an FMEA for your own career adventure. 

Here are two examples:

Let's say that you're a junior in college about to graduate with a degree in computer science. Aspirationally you're really interested in doing your own startup, but you're not sure if you should "play it safe" and get a standard job. 

Failure Mode: If you don't pursue a startup now then you never will.

Effect: You miss out on leading the next shift in technology as an entrepreneur.

Severity: Moderate from a dreams/aspiration perspective as well as financially.

Probability: Low/Moderate and here's why...

Assumptions: You're assuming that you can only be an entrepreneur when you're young, single, don't have kids, and can work crazy hours. You're also assuming that there is nothing that you will learn in a "safe" industry job that would then apply to your future startup. During my time working in robotic surgery, I worked with many members of Verb Surgical which was a Johnson & Johnson and Google (Alphabet) startup. Many of my colleagues were older, wicked smart, and actively raising families in Silicon Valley.

Example 2:

Let's say you've been working at the same company for five years and you've been holding out for a promotion/raise assuming you successfully launch the project you're on. 

This one has multiple failure modes of various severities:

Failure Mode 1: After five years you launch the product, but don't get the promotion/raise.

Failure Mode 2: After five years your skills aren't appropriately developed because you didn't rotate across the business.

Failure Mode 3: After five years you get the promotion but end up pigeonholed as a ______ subject matter expert making it difficult for you to rotate to other things.

Effect 1: You're faced with either being stuck at your current pay or moving elsewhere.

Severity 1: Moderate, financial instability.

Probability 1: Likely, this happens to people all the time. It's a common pitfall that I've also fallen into. 

Effect 2: You have limited opportunities internally and externally because you've stifled your potential.

Severity 2: High, challenging to recover from.

Probability: Likely, as you will probably stay focused on what is "project critical" and neglect your own personal development in pursuit of the promotion. 

Effect 3: You lack the career mobility you desire though you have financial stability.

Severity 3: Low, you're being paid well but your sense of fulfillment will diminish.

Probability 3: Low/moderate, this isn't as likely but it's still worth being aware of especially if you're in an unhealthy organization that "traps" people in lanes. 

Assumptions: Across all these failure modes there was an assumption that not only would promotion come from launching the product, but also that you would be developing along the way. By challenging this assumption we discovered the different career limitations that could exist by staying in the current role. 

Assumptions, like Murphy lurk in the shadows. They're often unspoken, unnoticed, and unintrusive. Then when you least expect it, they can ruin your day. Managing them is difficult because it's impossible to control the future. However, we can choose to identify various risks, and their potential impacts and plot a proactive course of action. 

Don't let your assumptions sink your career. Test everything and hold onto what is true. Life will make decisions for you if you remain complicit in your career journey. 

So get to work on your careerFMEA and let me know how it turns out.

I'd be happy to review your work. 

And as always... keep changing the world. 

~ The Pretentious Engineer